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The IMF estimation for 2009 world economic growth

Quick poll: The IMF says that, in 2009, world economic growth will fall from 3.4% (2008) to 0.5%. Do you think that's too pessimistic? 

 

 

Comment from Justin Roux, Senior Vice-President of Communications at Luvata

This is a very sombre result – voters clearly viewed the IMF’s prediction of “a drop in growth of global GDP from 3.4% to just 0.5%” as NOT being too pessimistic. It leaves us speculating how many voters believe that the estimate is actually optimistic and that the final figure could be worse.

The IMF announced their estimate in January and this poll was taken in the month that followed. In that time, many financial analyses of the downturn have been made public based upon various data from Q4, 2008 and the opening months of 2009. Media coverage has been a long way from cheerful and several well-known companies have announced bankruptcy. So, in Q1 2009, the evidence of the downturn is becoming very real all around us – this will have a negative effect on voters’ confidence.

CNN Money’s recent poll asked its visitors when they expected an economic turnaround. 22% said “later this year”, 20% expected early 2010, 22% said late 2010 and an astonishing 35% said “2011 or later” (source cnnmoney.com).

The effect of the simple human feeling of confidence is enormously significant and sits right in the roots of business behaviour. That being the case; is public confidence a trailing or a leading indicator of business trends? Perhaps that’s a subject for another poll at some point. We’ll leave you to think about it.

 



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